ZBB 2025, 53

RWS Verlag Kommunikationsforum GmbH & Co. KG, Köln RWS Verlag Kommunikationsforum GmbH & Co. KG, Köln 2199-1715 Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft ZBB 2025 AufsätzeValentin Spruck*

Persistence of Private Equity Excess Returns: Europe vs. North America

Despite the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggesting that historical performance doesn’t predict future results, private equity – particularly venture capital and buyout funds – exhibits an anomaly known as performance persistence. The findings in this paper reveal significant performance persistence across the whole dataset, where the performance of the last two fund generations strongly predicts future outcomes. However, a key contribution of this paper to the existing literature is the finding that performance persistence may not be a universal industry-wide phenomenon, as previously suggested. Instead, the results indicate that performance persistence is primarily driven by North American funds, while European funds exhibit significantly less persistence. Additionally, higher past performance correlates with stronger fundraising growth, and persistence is more pronounced when fundraising rounds occur in shorter time frames, suggesting that similar market conditions influence fund performance.

Contents

  • I. Introduction
    • 1. Explanation of Private Equity
    • 2. Research Problem and Objectives
    • 3. Structure
  • II. Literature Review
    • 1. Value Creation in Private Equity
      • 1.1 Entry- and Exit-Valuation
      • 1.2 Organic Growth and Operational Improvement
      • 1.3 Leverage
      • 1.4 Inorganic Growth
    • 2. Performance Persistence, Fundraising and Fund Size
  • III. Hypothesis Development and Data Selection
    • 1. Hypothesis Development
    • 2. Data Source, Variable Selection and Performance Metrics
  • IV. Methodology
    • 1. Data Description
    • 2. Transitional Probabilities
    • 3. Regressing Current Performance on Past Performance
    • 4. Performance and Fundraising
    • 5. Time Overlap
  • V. Conclusion
    • 1. Key Findings
    • 2. Limitations
    • 3. Paths for Future Research
  • List of References
*
*)
Master of Science, Lehrstuhl Prof. Dr. Mark Wahrenburg, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt/M.

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